Ravi Gopalakrishnan, head-equities, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund, tells Ashley Coutinho that earnings growth will pick up once the benefits of reform initiatives accrue.
Bulls might be on the rampage on Dalal Street but lofty valuations of the Indian equities present a reason for concern and the markets could perhaps witness up to 10 per cent correction, according to analysts. Benchmark indices have been on a record-breaking rally lately and August witnessed the stock market reaching many new highs. The BSE benchmark soared over 9 per cent last month.
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries:
The stock of the country's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) was down 1.06 per cent in trade on margin pressures in Q1FY24, mixed market share outlook, and earnings impact due to the buyout of Suzuki Motor Gujarat. While MSIL has decided to terminate the contract manufacturing agreement and acquire Suzuki Motor Gujarat, the quantum of payment and mode (cash/equity swap) has not been decided. If the cash option is opted for, there would be a 3.5-4 per cent hit to MSIL's FY25 earnings per share as the deal is expected to be completed by the end of the current financial year.
'Overall, the Indian economy is doing well.' 'Our economic fundamentals are strong and the early signs of recovery are sustainable.' 'This is positive for the market in the long run.'
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty cut short their four-day gaining streak to close lower by half a per cent on Wednesday due to profit-taking in banking oil and metal stocks amid weak trends in global markets.
Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) declared disappointing results in Q1FY24. While it reported a net profit of Rs 9,540 crore in Q1FY24, this was attributable to the transfer of Rs 7,490 crore from non-participating (non-par) products to shareholders' accounts due to the accretion on available solvency margin. In operational terms, annualised premium equivalent (APE) declined and value of new business (VNB) margin was flat. But the medium-term prospects may be better.
Sensex, Nifty have lost about 6%, against 0.5-5% decline in other key Asian indices.
The margins of tyre manufacturers could come under pressure given the rise in rubber prices and the moderating demand for tyres. In the past three quarters, the revenue growth for listed tyre companies has moderated from low to mid-single-digit on account of factors such as lower demand in replacement segments, weak export markets and the decline in the average selling prices to car makers (OEMs). Demand trends could remain muted in the near term, given the weak passenger vehicle replacement demand, assuming a typical replacement cycle of 3-5 years, and demand moderation in the OEM segment.
The recent equity market weakness has sobered up investor mood, but the coming festive season is keeping analysts upbeat on stocks related to the consumption basket. Among the lot, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer electronics segments are expected to do well over the next few months, and investors should thus selectively take bets in these pockets, analysts suggest. "We expect good volume growth for the FMCG sector during the festive season with some improvement in rural demand.
Among Sensex stocks, Tata Motors rose the most by 2.79 per cent. NTPC, Reliance Industries, Infosys, TCS, HDFC twins, Tata Motors, ITC, Power Grid and Bajaj Finserv were among the major gainers. Tata Steel fell the most by 1.22 per cent. L&T, Sun Pharmaceuticals, IndusInd Bank and Ultratech Cement were among the losers.
Axis Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, soaring over 6 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finserv, HDFC, Bajaj Finance, ITC, IndusInd Bank, SBI, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries.
'Q1 is going to bear the brunt of the second wave, exposing full-year GDP forecasts to downward revisions, unless phase-3 of vaccination is executed quickly.'
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The broader consensus was that the Fed would cut the monthly stimulus of $85 billion by $10-15 billion.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
Enthused by the stock market rally, an increasing number of Indian executives believe the economy is on a recovery path, although a majority still feel that the worst is not over, a survey says.
The stock of fast-moving consumer goods major Tata Consumer Products has been reaching new all-time highs on better-than-expected results for the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), strong growth in the food business, and margin gains in the beverage/international business. Most brokerages are positive on the stock, given growth prospects, and believe that rich valuations are justified. The near-term trigger has been the robust operational performance in Q2.
For a while, it seemed the markets were going on a free fall.
Multiple triggers such as asset sales, pickup in energy cash flows, increased traction in omni-channel retail, and rise in ARPUs could further drive the stock.
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Gold tumbles by Rs 1,250 to Rs 30,950.
Actively-managed large-cap mutual fund (MF) schemes have managed to regain some lost sheen this year after faring poorly in the 2022 calendar year (CY22). At the end of the first six months (H1) of CY23, 78 per cent of the active large-cap schemes were ahead of the Nifty50 index funds as against just 26 per cent in 2022. When compared to the Sensex index funds, 61 per cent active funds have delivered better returns, shows an analysis of Value Research data.
Among Sensex components, shares of Reliance Industries, India's largest company by market value, stole the show by surging 1.61 per cent to their highest in over three months.
History has shown that cyclical stocks (capital goods, metals, banking, infrastructure, etc) are some of the best performing stocks in an up-cycle.
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
Precious metals recovered on the bullion market on revival of buying by stockists and investors amid diversion of some funds from the falling stock markets, and closed with notable gains.
Stock prices is due to valuation expansion
Reminiscent of the past two years, the market has made positive strides ahead of the Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24). The benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 1.8 per cent in the last month. Typically, markets tend to gain ahead of the Budget as investors build in optimism.
In 2015-16, reforms will take hold, growth in GDP, will accelerate, and government processes and statutory clearances will speed up
Fund managers of large-cap and equity-linked saving schemes (ELSS) have demonstrated a marked improvement in their performance over the past year, according to the latest SPIVA (S&P Indices Versus Active) report released by S&P Dow Jones Indices. In the one-year period ending June 2023, 17 per cent of active large-cap schemes outperformed the S&P BSE 100, compared to just 9 per cent at the end of June 2022. In the case of ELSS, there was a sharp improvement in performance, with 66 per cent of active schemes delivering better returns than the benchmark S&P BSE 200.
Stocks mutual funds had invested in had risen almost to pre-pandemic levels in March.
In addition to new launches and restructuring across product segments, festival demand also aided growth.
Nifty regains 5K; Global peers contribute to the gain.
There is no near-term respite for the country's largest fast-moving consumer goods maker, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), which is facing multiple challenges on the growth front. With demand showing no signs of improvement, especially in the rural segment, the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2023-24 (FY24) is likely to be similar to the previous quarter, with volume growth in the low single digits. The stock, which is down 7 per cent over the past year compared to the 11 per cent jump for the S&P BSE Sensex, could underperform the benchmark in the near term as well.
Just when stocks are seen as invincible, we should worry, warns Akash Prakash.
'You can put 25 per cent right now; put another 25 per cent when Nifty corrects another 500 points.' 'At 13,500 put another 25 per cent and at 13,000 one can get fully deployed.'
Saurabh Mukherjea, CEO, Ambit Capital, says he is advising clients to either take a genuinely long-term view on stocks or diversify the portfolio with stocks, bonds and gold for those with a short-term view.
According to traders, recovery in global equities and hopes of growth-boosting measures in the upcoming Budget buoyed market sentiment. Further, short-covering ahead of January derivatives expiry also lifted key indices, they said.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
Operating margins have been the primary driver of corporate earnings in India in recent quarters, despite revenue growth suffering from weak consumer demand. Companies across sectors have reported a sharp improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins over the past two years, benefiting from lower commodity and energy prices. Higher margins more than compensated for slower revenue growth, resulting in double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive quarters.
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